Izindawo Ezishisayo Zakamuva Kuma-Transformer Omhlaba Wonke Aphakathi Naphezulu (2025-2026)

1. Ukuthuthukiswa Kwezindinganiso Zokusebenzisa Amandla Kahle kanye Nokuguqulwa Okuluhlaza: Ukuguqulwa Kwamandla Amasha Njengomgogodla​

Emhlabeni jikelele, izidingo zokusebenzisa kahle amandla aphakathi nendawo kanye Isiguquli se-Voltage EphezuluKuyanda, futhi ukuntuleka kwezindinganiso zokusebenzisa kahle amandla ohlangothini olusha lokukhiqiza amandla kube yiphuzu elibalulekile eminyakeni yamuva. Ngo-Ephreli 2024, iShayina yakhipha inguqulo entsha ye-Minimum Allowable Values ​​of Energy Efficiency kanye ne-Energy Efficiency Grades for Power Transformers (GB20052-2024), eyaqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni ngoFebhuwari 2025. Okokuqala ngqa, leli zinga lifaka ama-transformer angu-6kV-66kV ukuze kukhiqizwe amandla amasha (i-photovoltaic, amandla omoya, isitoreji samandla) emithethweni yokusebenza kahle kwamandla edingekayo, ehlanganisa izimo zamandla amakhulu zokuxhumeka okusha kwegridi yamandla (isb., ama-transformer angu-35kV acwiliswe ngowoyela/owomile adala ngaphezu kwama-95% ezicelo emkhakheni omusha wamandla).

Umgomo oyinhloko wokuthuthukiswa okujwayelekile ukunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kokudluliselwa kwamandla okuvela kumandla amasha. Uma sibheka ama-transformer angaphansi kwe-35kV acwiliswe uwoyela njengesibonelo, ukulahlekelwa kwamandla angenamthwalo webanga lesi-3 ngaphansi kwezinga elisha kwehle ngo-30% uma kuqhathaniswa nenguqulo endala (GB6451-2015), kanti ukusebenza kahle kwamandla kwebanga loku-1 kwehle ngo-10%; ukulahlekelwa kwamandla angenamthwalo we-35kV ama-transformer ohlobo olomile (ibanga lesi-3) kwehle ngo-20% uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lomkhakha (NB/T31062-2014). Ngokusho kwezilinganiso, uma wonke ama-transformer amasha e-energy eShayina ethuthukiswa kusukela ebangeni le-S11 kuya ebangeni le-S20, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kungancishiswa ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-55, okulingana nokukhiqizwa kwamandla kwe-Gezhouba Hydropower Station izikhathi ezingu-2.8 ngo-2021.

Lokhu kusetshenziswa okujwayelekile akugcini nje ngokukhuthaza ukuguqulwa kwemboni ye-transformer yaseShayina ibe ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu kanye ne-carbon ephansi​ kodwa futhi kunikeza uhlaka olubalulekile lokubhekisela ekusebenzeni kahle kwamandla kokuxhumeka kwegridi entsha yamandla emhlabeni jikelele.

1. I-Smart Grid kanye ne-AI Demand-Drived: Ama-Solid-State Transformers (ama-SST) Aba yi-Next-Generation Core​

Ngokuqhuma kwamandla okubala e-AI (isb., ukuqeqesha amamodeli amakhulu e-ChatGPT kusebenzisa ugesi omningi ezinsukwini ezintathu njengezimoto ze-Tesla ezingu-3,000 ezishayela amakhilomitha angu-320,000) kanye nokusheshiswa kokwakhiwa kwegridi ehlakaniphile, ama-transformer endabuko awasakwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zamandla aphezulu kanye nokulawulwa okuguquguqukayo. Ama-transformer e-Solid-state (ama-SST), anezinzuzo zawo zobukhulu obuncane, ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu, kanye nokusekelwa kokugeleza kwamandla okuqondiswa kwezinhlangothi ezimbili, abe yinto ebalulekile ocwaningweni lwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokunaka emakethe muva nje.

Ama-SST asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bokuguqula amandla kagesi asebenzisa imvamisa ephezulu. Uma kuqhathaniswa nama-transformer endabuko e-industrial-frequency, anciphisa ivolumu ngo-50%-80% kanye nesisindo ngo-60%-80%, futhi angafinyelela ukulawulwa kwamandla kagesi ashintshashintshayo ezingeni le-millisecond kanye nokukhishwa kwamandla kagesi okungaguquki, okwenza afaneleke kakhulu ezimweni ezifana nezikhungo zedatha ze-AI, uxhumano olusha lwegridi yamandla, kanye neziteshi zokushaja ezisheshayo kakhulu. Isibonelo, iphepha elimhlophe lakamuva le-NVIDIA libala ama-SST njengesixazululo esithandwayo sokunikezwa ngqo kwamandla kagesi aphakathi ezindaweni zedatha, futhi izinkampani ezifana ne-Jinpan Technology ziqedele ukuthuthukiswa kwe-prototype ye-SST futhi zathumela amasampula ku-NVIDIA.

Nakuba ama-SST asesesigabeni sokuqinisekiswa kwe-prototype/small-batch​ (okulindeleke ukuthi athengiswe ngezinga elikhulu kusukela ngo-2028 kuya ku-2030), okulindelwe emakethe kuphezulu—umbiko wocwaningo lwe-Guangda Securities ukhomba ukuthi ama-SST kulindeleke ukuthi abe yintuthuko ezinkingeni zamandla eziqhutshwa amasondo amabili "e-AI + amandla amasha," kanye nosayizi wemakethe okhula kusuka kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisithupha ngo-2024 kuya kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-26.4 ngo-2027 (i-CAGR engaba ngu-64%).

1. Ukuntuleka Kokunikezwa Komhlaba Wonke kanye Nezinzuzo ZaseShayina: Ukulawulwa Okuzimele Kwemboni Egcwele Kuphenduka Ukuncintisana Okuyinhloko​

Emhlabeni jikelele, ama-transformer aphakathi nendawo naphezulu abhekene nokuntuleka okukhulu kokuhlinzekwa: igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwama-transformer kagesi e-United States likhuphuke ngo-116% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019, ukuthuthukiswa kwegridi yaseYurophu kuqhubeka kancane ngenxa yokushoda kwama-transformer, kanti amaphrojekthi amakhulu elanga eNdiya awasebenzi ngenkathi elinde ama-transformer. Ngokuphikisana nalokhu, iShayina, enama-60% wamandla okukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke, ibe yindlalifa enkulu kunazo zonke.

Izinzuzo eziyinhloko zaseShayina kuma-transformer zisekulawulekeni okuzimele kwemboni yonke:

Izinto Eziyinhloko: Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi ye-silicon eqondiswe (izinto "zenhliziyo" zama-transformer) kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.0325 (2024), okuphindwe kahlanu kunaseJapane kanye nokuphindwe kasishiyagalombili kunase-United States. I-Baosteel Group yakhe umugqa wokukhiqiza ishidi lensimbi ye-silicon eliwu-0.18mm kuphela emhlabeni, okusebenza kahle kakhulu emhlabeni wonke;

Ubuchwepheshe kanye Nomthamo: I-China Electrical Equipment Group ihlanganise amabhizinisi afana ne-XD, i-Baobian, kanye ne-Shandong Electrical Engineering ukuze yakhe uhla oluphelele lwamandla "e-UHV + amandla amasha". Amabhizinisi azimele afana ne-Xinjiang Tebian kanye ne-Jiangsu Huapeng ahola umhlaba ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwe-transformer yamandla amasha;

Ukusebenza Kahle Kokulethwa: Umjikelezo wokulethwa kwe-transformer waseShayina (isb., izinyanga eziyi-10 zama-transformer amakhulu e-UHV) mufushane kakhulu kunowaseYurophu nase-United States (ngaphezu kwezinyanga eziyi-18), futhi izindleko ziphansi (imikhiqizo enencazelo efanayo iyingxenye yentengo yaseYurophu naseMelika).

Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti 2025, inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-transformer yaseShayina lifinyelele ku-29.711 billion yuan, okuwukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungu-36.3%, kanti imakethe yaseYurophu ikhuphuke ngo-138%. Amanye amakhasimende azimisele ukukhokha iprimiyamu engu-20% ukuqinisekisa ukutholakala.

1. Ukuthuthukiswa Kwezobuchwepheshe Nokuthuthukiswa Kwezimboni: I-UHV kanye Namandla Omoya Angaphandle Kwezwe Njengezindawo Ezibalulekile​

Muva nje, amabhizinisi aseShayina afinyelele impumelelo enkulu kwezobuchwepheshe ku-UHV kanye namandla omoya asogwini lolwandle kanye nezinye izinkambu ze-transformer ze-voltage ephakathi nephezulu, okukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni:

Ama-UHV Transformers: I-transformer yenkampani i-Shenbian engu-±800kV UHV DC esetshenziswa kuphrojekthi ye-Jinshang-Hubei UHV ithuthukisa amazinga okushisa ohlangothini lwenethiwekhi ngo-5%; I-transformer yejeneretha ye-Xidian Xibian engu-1000kV UHV iqinisekisa ukusebenza ngesikhathi kwamaphrojekthi kagesi asebenzisa amalahle asebenzisa ama-kilowatt ayizigidi;

Ama-Transformer Amandla Omoya Angaphandle: Inkampani iShenbian yethule i-transformer yokuqala emhlabeni ye-20Hz yamandla omoya angaphandle e-low-frequency nacelle, evumelaniswe namagridi aguquguqukayo e-low-frequency, yanciphisa ukulahlekelwa kokudlulisela ngo-15%-20%, yabe isisetshenziswa epulazini lomoya lase-offshore i-Huaene Yuhuan Phase II;

Ama-Smart Transformers: Inkampani Yemishini Yobunjiniyela Bogesi yaseShandong yathuthukisa i-transformer encane enama-twiring amathathu engu-220kV, enciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi ngokulungiswa kwesakhiwo (isb., isakhiwo sokuqinisa ipuleti lethangi) futhi ithuthukise ukusebenza kahle kokuhlanganiswa ngo-35%, amazinga okusebenza kahle kwamandla edlula amazinga kazwelonke.

1. Umnotho Ojikelezayo Nokukhiqiza Kabusha: Indlela Entsha Yokuguqulwa Kokuluhlaza​

Ngokuthuthuka kwesu "le-dual carbon", ukwenziwa kabusha kwe-transformer​ sekuyindawo entsha embonini. I-TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. isebenzisa ukufakwa kwe-"digital nerve" (ama-chip okuzwa ahlakaniphile) kanye "nokuvuselelwa kwezitho" (ukuvuselelwa kwe-coil insulation, i-insulating oil deep dialysis) ukuguqula ama-transformer angu-220kV angasasebenzi abe imishini enekhono lokusebenza kahle kwamandla elingaphezu kwezindinganiso zikazwelonke zeBanga loku-1. Izindleko zingama-60% kuphela emikhiqizo emisha, futhi iyunithi eyodwa ephinde yakhiqizwa ingonga ama-70% ezindleko zokuthenga futhi ibuyise isikhathi esibalulekile sokwakha.

Le modeli ayigcini nje ngokunciphisa izindleko zokuthuthukiswa kwegridi kodwa futhi inciphisa imfucuza yezinsiza—ngokusho kwezilinganiso, ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kusuka esikhungweni sokuvuselela kufana nokutshala izinkulungwane zamahektha amahlathi, okuhambisana nesiqondiso sentuthuko "yomnotho ojikelezayo."